What A Difference a Few Hours Make...

by Codewiz51 September 30, 2008 08:03

It' amazing to watch the global financial markets. Last night, when I went to bed, the headlines screeched "Markets tumbling in Asia". I wake up this morning, and the Asian markets look steady. Europe isn't crashing and burning. And would you look! Stock futures in the U.S. are way up. I guess the spoiled brats that sold their Mothers yesterday to make a point have had some time to sleep on their actions. And cooler heads will prevail? Nope, the press has chalked it up to a dependence on the hope that a bail out will pass - eventually.

Did banks quit loaning to each other last night? Not really. Rates aren't good, but I've seen interbank rates much worse than they are now (relatively). Remember the Carter years? The misery index? Did treasury rates rise last night? Yep. Seems rates are too low and some folks are hunting for better returns, so they quit buying treasuries and started buying equities or other assets. Did gold go through the roof last night? Nope, there is some appreciation, but no signs of panic buying.

So, let's get a couple of things on the table. There are two problems remaining. Non-performing assests on the books at big banks, and hedge funds and other non-insurance companies that sold CDS paper and now want to renege on the promise to repay. Houses, while down, are not out. Homes are selling pretty much all over the country. The volume doesn't make up for the boom volumes in the previously hot markets, but homes are selling. And mortgages are being originated - regardless of the press' concentration on places like Las Vegas or Miami markets.

So don't panic over the sell off. And don't start supporting a bail out, or financial stimulus, or whatever the title de jour calls it. We don't need it.

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