I've noticed a recurring theme in the economic reports. It's not anything but anecdotal observations, but it shows up often in the financial media:
Services sector pullback slows, factory orders up
But the Commerce Department's report was below analysts' expectations,
and the government also marked down the March figure to a 1.9 percent
drop, from a 0.9 percent decline previously reported. Notice anything odd here? The March number has been revised downward by 2x! I know the numbers are subject to revision, but it isn't often we see a 2x differential.
Private sector cuts 532,000 jobs in May, ADP says
The April ADP index was revised to a decline of 545,000 from a decline of 491,000 previously reported.
Again, we see the April numbers were revised downward signicantly, ~54K jobs.
First Drop in Continuing Jobless Claims Since January
The prior week’s reading was revised to 625,000 from a prior reading of 623,000. This is not as drastic a revision, but still supports the thesis of not reporting a not-so-bad number and then revising it downward when it is no longer news.
I am attempting to look at revisions for March to see if a pattern develops. The pointed question to ask is, "Are We Being Lied To?" Are current numbers manipulated so the economy doesn't seem so bad? (I read 1984 as a teenager. It made a deep impression on me.)